Current Nursing Shortage 

The healthcare industry today faces unprecedented challenges through the next decade. On the labor side these challenges are being fueled by an aging workforce, baby-boomer retirement, increased utilization, and fewer graduates entering the workforce than needed to meet demand. By taking employee workforce projections for Registered Nurses as an indication of parallel numbers in Laboratory and Imaging Technicians, Pharmacy Services and LPNs, the healthcare industry is rapidly approaching “critical” shortages in personnel; with projections changing for the worse every two years. Some feel that since supply is so close to demand the “critical” shortage is here today!

Since 1998 the federal government has re-forecast the RN shortage three times, 1998, 2002 and 2005. In 1998 the U.S. BHP predicted the nursing shortage would occur in the middle of 2008 as shown by the red and blue lines on the chart. In the past seven years, due to the increase in number of medical channels, the projections have continued to change.

In 2000 the U.S. BHP estimated 1.89 million FTE RNs, while demand was estimated at 2 million, a shortage of approximately 6%. The shortage at that time was projected to grow to 29 percent by 2020. As shown on the chart, a more alarming fact was the estimated drop in the actual numbers of practicing RNs.

In 2002 the projections were revised again. According to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services the number of RN FTE positions had grown to 2,284,000 and projections for 2012 had been changed to 2,908,000. These revisions are reflected on the chart below.

In 2005 the projections were revised again. According to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services the number of RN FTE positions had grown to 2,393,000 and projections for 2014 had been changed to 3,096,124. These revisions are reflected on the chart above.

Shortage of new RN’s into the system
The federal government estimates that the increase in new RN’s into the system would need to be a minimum of 40% per year for a continuous ten (10) year period. Over the past two years the increase has been on 16% base on the best estimated numbers of graduates entering the nursing field. More disturbing is that 102,634 qualified applicants were rejected by nursing schools due to insufficient faculty from 2004-2006.
An Aging Population will Multiply the Problem
  • 185,000 nurses joined the workforce between 2002-2005.
  • Two thirds of those nurses (152,962) are 50 years old or greater.
  • Fewer older RNs are employed in direct patient and acute care institutions.
  • Nearly one-third of older RNs plan to leave their positions within the next 3 years, with most intending to retire.